IGC Soybean April Outlook

Ram Gopal Yadav (7 years ago)

Global soybean output in 2017/18 is trimmed by a further 2m t, to 339m t, a 2% y/y decline, as a cut for Argentina is only partly offset by an upgrade for Brazil. While several producers will cut big crops, the y/y decline is linked to an anticipated plunge in output in Argentina, where adverse weather has limited area and yield potential. The 2018/19 global outturn is placed fractionally higher than before, at 355m t, up by 16m y/y. And with total use cut slightly, inventories are lifted to 40m t, marginally lower y/y. With global uptake set to advance to a new peak on gains in Asia, carryovers are seen contracting by 14% y/y, to 41m t. Much of the decline will likely be due to the major exporters, seen down by more than one-fifth, to 18.0m t, as accumulation in the USA contrasts with a heavy contraction in Argentina. Trade could rise by 3% y/y, to a high of 152m t. Due to tentative expectations for area gains in leading producers, world production may recover in 2018/19. The prediction for trade is reduced from before but, at 157m t, is still up by 5m y/y and a new peak.

Kazakhstan oilseed inventories rise 18%.

Ram Gopal Yadav (7 years ago)

The Statistics Committee of the National Economy Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan reports that oilseed inventories totaled 904.3 KMT on April 1, 2018, i.e. almost 18% (136 KMT) more than a year ago (768.3 KMT on April 1, 2017). A rise was registered in stocks of all staple oilseeds. So, sunseed availabilities were up 6% (20.3 KMT) year-on-year at 372.5 KMT, linseed stocks were up 25% (58.1 KMT) at 286.8 KMT, soybean stocks grew by 1.4% (1 KMT) to 74 KMT, rapeseed ones gained 86% (60.5 KMT) and totaled 130.5 KMT.

Ukraine Soybean oil production set a new record.

Ram Gopal Yadav (7 years ago)

Soybean oil production by Ukraine’s large and medium-sized crushers amounted to 17.3 KMT in February 2018. This is down 9% from the previous month (19.1 KMT) but up 19% from February 2017 (14.5 KMT). Overall, 98 KMT of soybean oil was produced earlier in the 2017/18 season (September-February) – its output increased 23% on the year and set a new record for this period.

Brazilian soybean exports in April are set to hit 10.99 million mt

Ram Gopal Yadav (7 years ago)

Brazilian soybean exports in April are set to hit 10.99 million mt, breaking the previous record reached in May 2017. Brazil exported 7.4 million mt of soybeans during the first three weeks leading up to April 20, at an average of 495,700 mt per working day, customs data shows, faster than the daily average of 419,700 mt during last month, when a total of 8.81 million mt was exported. Daily rate is set to increase to 593,000 mt during April’s final week as an additional 3.56 million mt of Brazilian soybeans is lined up to leave Brazil by April 30. About 734,000 mt of soybeans are scheduled to leave the port of Paranagua between April 23 to April 30, with 978,000 mt to leave Santos and 556,500 mt to depart from Rio Grande over the same week.