Global soybean output in 2017/18 is trimmed by a further 2m t, to 339m t, a 2% y/y decline, as a cut for Argentina is only partly offset by an upgrade for Brazil. While several producers will cut big crops, the y/y decline is linked to an anticipated plunge in output in Argentina, where adverse weather has limited area and yield potential. The 2018/19 global outturn is placed fractionally higher than before, at 355m t, up by 16m y/y. And with total use cut slightly, inventories are lifted to 40m t, marginally lower y/y. With global uptake set to advance to a new peak on gains in Asia, carryovers are seen contracting by 14% y/y, to 41m t. Much of the decline will likely be due to the major exporters, seen down by more than one-fifth, to 18.0m t, as accumulation in the USA contrasts with a heavy contraction in Argentina. Trade could rise by 3% y/y, to a high of 152m t. Due to tentative expectations for area gains in leading producers, world production may recover in 2018/19. The prediction for trade is reduced from before but, at 157m t, is still up by 5m y/y and a new peak.