WASDE SUGAR MAY OUTLOOK

U.S. fiscal year 2016/17 beet sugar production is decreased 64,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on lower expected sucrose recovery. Cane sugar production in Texas is reduced by 2,795 STRV based on final processor reporting. TRQ imports entering under Free Trade Agreements are increased by 2,555 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 100,000 STRV based on pace to date. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are estimated at 1.477 million STRV. Sugar production for 2017/18 is projected at 8.700 million STRV, the sum of beet sugar production of 4.950 million and cane sugar production of 3.750 million. Imports for 2017/18 are projected at 3.858 million STRV and are comprised of TRQ imports of 1.373 million; re-export imports of 175,000; imports from Mexico of 2.301 million; and high-tier tariff imports of 10,000. Projected 2017/18 TRQ imports of specialty sugar include only the WTO minimum quantity because any additional quantities have not been announced by the Secretary of Agriculture. Exports for 2017/18 are projected at 25,000 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption are expected to increase 1.0 percent year-over-year to 12.322 million STRV. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected residually at 1.534 million, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.3 percent. For 2016/17, Mexico sugar exports to non-U.S. destinations are reduced by 58,919 metric tons (MT) to 110,000 based on pace to date. Product re-export deliveries under the IMMEX program are increased 60,000 MT to 390,000 to match the total now estimated by Mexico authorities for 2015/16. Ending stocks are estimated residually at 1.342 million MT, an increase of 48,919 over last month. For 2017/18, Mexico sugar production is projected at 6.225 million MT based on a sugarcane crop of 55.000 million and a recovery of about 11.3 percent. Combined per capita consumption of sugar and HFCS for 2017/18 is projected the same as for 2016/17. With flat HFCS consumption, sugar deliveries for human consumption for 2017/18 are projected at 4.528 million. Exports to the United States are based on U.S. Needs as defined in the Suspension Agreements but, assuming additionally, that U.S. specialty sugar imports will be set at the same level as initially established for 2016/17.