Yellow pea

DRY PEAS For 2017-18, exports are forecast to fall to 2.5 million tonnes (Mt), with China, India and the US ranking as Canada’s top three markets. Canadian dry pea exports to India are expected to fall sharply to 275 thousand tonnes (kt). Through August to January of this crop year, Canadian dry pea exports total 1.4 Mt, down 35% from this same period in 2016-17. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply due a lack of export demand, despite lower supply. The average price is expected to fall from 2016-17, as lower yellow and green pea prices more than offset higher feed pea prices. During the month of February, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan fell by $5/t, while the price of green peas was unchanged. Monthly dry pea exports have continued at a weak pace. Yellow pea supplies continue to be ample. Indications are that there will be another large winter pulse crop in India. If a higher than average pulse crop in India is realized, Canadian dry pea export demand is expected to remain below normal through the remainder of the crop year. Supporting prices is the continued weakness of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a C$35/t premium over yellow peas, compared to the C$6/t discount green peas had to yellow peas in 2016-17. US dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at a record of nearly 0.6 Mt, down nearly 50% from 2016-17. This is largely due to a sharp fall in North Dakota area and below average yields. As a result, Canadian exports to the US are forecast to be higher than the previous year. For 2017-18 to-date (August to January), Canadian dry pea exports to the US totaled 166 Kt. For 2018-19, seeded area is forecast to fall 21% from 2017-18 to 1.3 Mha because of lower returns relative to other crops and below average export demand. Production is forecast to fall by 22% to 3.2 Mt, with trend yields and lower area. However, supply is expected to fall only marginally due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be similar to the current crop year but carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is expected to be lower than in 2017-18.