The weather in Brazil continues to be drier than normal and hotter than normal. This is just not a typical summer rainy season rains have been too scattered, the coverage too uneven and I think the major concern now is shifting into north-eastern Brazil.

The north-eastern corner of the country represents about 12% of total soybean production and weather forecasts aren’t favourable for the crop. Farmers in Brazil are about 6% harvested to date, and early yields have been nothing short of disappointing. Brazil now forecasts lower yields than last year, and I lowered my estimate this week 15 million ton.

Soybean crop damage has occurred in the Brazilian states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and parts of Mato Grosso from unusually dry weather during December and partly also so far in January.

Soil moisture shortages are also widening in the northern and north-eastern soybean growing areas and if forecasts of ongoing below normal rainfall materialize for the remainder of January, additional crop damage will occur. We have reduced our Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 117.5 mln ton