Pest menace, weak rains, lower area to spur soy prices 10% Oct-Nov.

Defying the usual bearish trend during fresh arrival season, soybean prices may rise 10% in Oct-Nov, bolstered by pest attacks, weak rains, and projections of lower acreage. Anticipation of a smaller crop size this year due to fall in area and weather vagaries may primarily support prices. Soybean may rise by around 10% during Oct-Nov. India’s soybean output is likely to fall 5% to 9.6 million tonne in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) as acreage is seen lower in key growing areas. We expect prices to rise by nearly 10-12% by October-end and November, as by that time, we’ll have a clearer picture of the damage to crop and fall in production.