NCDEX October soybean contract was up nearly 1% on concerns that heavy rains in Madhya Pradesh, could lead to flower shedding in the crop and reduce yields.

The most-active October contract on NCDEX was at 3,564 rupees per 100 kg, up 0.9% from the previous close. Rains in Madhya Pradesh were 115% above normal. Heavy rains are likely to continue over the state till Tuesday in the wake of a low-pressure area over the region.

Soybean production could fall by 10-15% this year as the crop is expected to suffer damage due to heavy rains. In Indore, the benchmark market, prices of soybean were steady at 3,650-3,700 rupees 100 kg. Arrivals were pegged at nearly 200 bags (1 bag = 100 kg) down 1,300 bags from previous day, as few farmers turned up to the market due to continuous rain in the region.

Soybeans futures settled with most contracts steady to 4 3/4 cents lower. Soybean meal was down $1.50/ton, with soy oil 1 point higher. USDA reported a total of 69,386 MT of soybean sales for 18/19 in the week of 8/29.

That would leave 2.594 MMT of outstanding sales left to ship with just 2 days left in the MY. New crop bookings totaled a strong 788,427 MT during that week, with a majority (409,000 MT) sold to unknown destinations.

Meal sales totaled 227,160 MT, with soy oil at 12,621 MT. CFTC data showed spec traders net short 73,127 contracts on September 3, a reduction of 2,920 contracts from the previous week.

IEG Vantage pegs the 2019 US soybean yield at 48.4 bpa, 0.2 bpa higher than their previous estimate. Stats Canada showed July 31 canola stocks at 3.873 MMT, down 55% from a year ago.