The October futures contract of soybean on NCDEX extended its fall owing to profit booking, and in tune with overall bearishness in the edible oil sector. The most-active October contract on NCDEX was at 3,992 rupees per 100 kg, down 0.7%.

The fall is unlikely to sustain for long as there is a concern over the crop due to the recent rains in Madhya Pradesh. In the benchmark market of Indore, soybean was sold at 4,250 rupees per 100 kg, 300 rupees higher owing to firm domestic demand. Arrivals are pegged at nearly 1,200 bags (1 bag = 100 kg), 800 bags lower.

Soybeans futures posted 17 to 23 cent gains in most contracts on Monday. Soybean meal was up $6/ton, with soy oil 37 points higher. This morning’s NASS Grain Stocks report showed a total of 913 mbu soybeans were in on-farm and off-farm stocks as of 9/1, lower than trade estimates in the 980s.

That was well above last year’s total but down 92 mbu from the Sept 12 projection of 1.005 bbu from WAOB. NASS revised 2018 US soybean production 116 mbu lower to 4.428 bbu, as US average yield for last year was dropped 1 bpa to 50.6 bpa. This revision was forced by the large residual use using the previous number.

Weekly Crop Progress data indicated that 55% of the US soybean crop had leaves dropping as of Sunday, with 7% harvested (20% avg). Conditions were up 1% to 55% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index 1 point higher at 348. Exports for soybeans were reported at 982,288 MT during the week of 9/29.

That was above last week and 55.86% larger than last year’s mark bringing the yr/yr to 6% more than 2018 YTD. Wire reports shows Chinese buyers have purchased another ~600,000 MT of US soybeans this morning, with a rumored target of up to 2 MMT this week.