CAI trims cotton crop size estimate on weather woes

As prevailing weather conditions and water scarcity hit cotton yields in key growing regions, trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has further trimmed its crop estimate to 343250 bales (each of 170 kg) for the season 2018-19 beginning from October 1.

Earlier CAI, at the Cotton India 2018 meet in Aurangabad last month, had projected the crop size at 348 lakh bales for the year 2018-19, 365000 bales lower than 2017-18.

CAI cited water shortage and climatic adversities as factors affecting the crop in the key growing regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka. “The CAI has revised downwards the crop estimate for Gujarat by 2 lakh bales, Maharashtra by 1 lakh bales, Karnataka by 1 lakh bales and Orissa by 75 thousand bales than compared to its previous estimate due to unfavourable weather conditions,” the trade body said in a statement.

 

The CAI has projected total cotton supply during October 2018 at 50.13 lakh bales, which consists of the arrival of 26.13 lakh bales in October 2018, imports in October 2018, which the Committee has estimated at 1 lakh bales and the opening stock at the beginning of the season as on October 1, which the Committee has estimated at 23 lakh bales.

Arrivals mount

On the arrivals front, record-breaking cotton arrivals were registered in October, mainly due to the absence of rain during the last 60 to 70 days in the entire cotton belt of India.

“Due to the dry and hot weather, kapas bolls opened in early stages this year. Farmers are getting a higher price for their crop at ₹5,300 per quintal as against ₹4,500reported around same time last year. Due to this, arrivals are considerably higher in October this year,” CAI stated in its statement.

CAI has estimated cotton consumption during October 2018 at 27 lakh bales, while the export shipment of cotton in October 2018 has been estimated at 2.50 lakh bales.

The stock at the end of October 2018 is estimated at 20.63 lakh bales, including 16.53 lakh bales with textile mills, while the remaining 4.10 lakh bales are estimated to be held by CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc).

CAI has estimated domestic consumption for the season at 324 lakh bales, while the exports are estimated to be 51 lakh bales, 18 lakh bales lower compared to the 69 lakh bales last year.

The carry-over stock at the end of the 2018-19 season is estimated by CAI at 15.25 lakh bales.